Numbers
Figures converted from INR at historical FX rates — see fx_rates.json for the rate table. Ratios, margins, and multiples are unitless and unchanged.
The Numbers
HDFC AMC trades at 40.7x earnings for a business compounding profit at 26% CAGR with zero debt, 80% operating margins, and 33% ROE. The stock is expensive on an absolute basis but cheap relative to the structural growth runway — Indian MF AUM/GDP is 18% versus 60%+ in developed markets. The single metric most likely to rerate this stock is the monthly SIP flow number: any sustained deceleration breaks the AUM growth flywheel that underpins the entire earnings trajectory.
Price ($)
Mkt Cap ($M)
P/E
P/B
Div Yield
Revenue & Earnings Power
Revenue has compounded at 13% over 11 years (FY2015–FY2026), but the inflection came in FY2024–FY2025 when equity market rallies accelerated AUM growth. FY2026 revenue growth decelerated to 2% ($44M vs $47M) despite a 20% AUM increase — reflecting telescopic TER compression on the largest schemes.
Operating margin stabilized at 78–83% over the last 7 years — the operating leverage story has already played out. The FY2026 net margin spike to 69% is misleading: $5.3M of other income (likely investment gains) inflated PAT. Core operating profit actually declined 1.5% YoY.
Revenue growth has decelerated sharply from 36% (Q3 FY2025) to -4% (Q4 FY2026). This reflects the lag effect of the BER/TER regulation and telescopic pricing on the largest schemes — a structural headwind, not a temporary blip.
Cash Generation — Are the Earnings Real?
FCF/Net Income (%)
FY2026 FCF ($M)
FCF/OpCF (%)
FCF/NI averaging 85% over FY2023–FY2026 — excellent for an asset manager. The small gap is capex on offices and technology ($0.2–0.5M/year). FCF grew from $14M to $27M in 4 years — a 22% CAGR — confirming that reported earnings are cash-backed.
Capital Allocation
HDFC AMC is a dividend machine — payout ratio has risen from 72% (FY2023) to 81% (FY2026). No buybacks, no acquisitions, no debt. The business generates far more cash than it can reinvest, and management returns the surplus. Dividend per share: $0.58 (FY2026), yielding 1.9% at current price.
Balance Sheet Health
Debt/Equity
ROCE (%)
ROE (%)
WC Days
Zero debt. $100M in investments (mostly own mutual fund seed capital). Negative working capital days mean the business collects fees before it pays expenses. This is fortress-grade balance sheet strength — Altman Z would be off the charts if applicable to asset managers.
Valuation — Historical Context
The stock has traded in a 31–46x P/E band since listing (Aug 2018). Current 40.7x sits at the median. At 31x (COVID trough), the stock offered a screaming buy. At 46x (FY2024 peak), it was priced for perfection. Today's 40.7x is fair — it prices in ~20% earnings growth, which is roughly what AUM growth delivers.
Current P/E
Median P/E (since listing)
P/B
P/B of 12.8x is high on an absolute basis but consistent with a business earning 33% ROE with zero leverage. Book value is not the right anchor for an asset-light fee business — AUM is. On an EV/AUM basis, HDFC AMC trades at ~1.4% of AUM, in line with global asset manager peers.
Peer Comparison
HDFC AMC commands a valuation premium (40.7x vs 30x for ABSL AMC) that is fully justified by its margin superiority (80% vs 60%) and scale advantage. Nippon Life AMC trades at a slightly higher P/E (42.1x) despite lower margins — the market pays up for its ETF franchise and retail distribution reach.
EPS Growth & Price Performance
Current Price ($)
52W High ($)
52W Low ($)
5Y Price CAGR
EPS has more than doubled from $0.32 (FY2019) to $0.71 (FY2026) — a 12% CAGR in USD terms (lower than INR CAGR due to INR depreciation). The stock has compounded at 14.8% over 5 years, slightly lagging EPS growth, which means the P/E has actually compressed from its mid-40s peak. This is the re-rating opportunity: if the market re-rates to 45x on continued 20%+ earnings growth, the stock has 10% upside from multiple expansion alone.
Fair Value Scenarios
Bear case assumes TER regulation bites harder, AUM growth slows to 12%, and the market compresses multiples to COVID-era levels. Base case assumes 15% AUM growth, stable yields, and 20% earnings growth at today's multiple. Bull case assumes India's financialization accelerates, passive share stays low, and the market re-rates to peak multiples.
The numbers confirm what the business analysis says: this is an extraordinarily profitable, asset-light compounder with structural tailwinds. What the numbers contradict is the idea that revenue growth is keeping pace with AUM growth — yield compression is real, and Q4 FY2026's negative revenue growth is an early warning. Watch the blended yield (currently 45 bps) and the equity/liquid AUM mix — if passive gains share faster than expected, the entire earnings model needs resetting.